No cause for celebration

No cause for celebration

by | 10 Jan, 2016 | Australia, demography, immigration

With the end of year festivities behind us, those of us fortunate enough to have a job have one thing on our minds… the next public holiday.

Unfortunately our next public holiday is one which comes with mixed feelings. Sure, it’s a day off in the Australian Summer, perfectly timed to enjoy the world’s biggest music democracy, but it is also a reminder that Australia (like many countries) has not faced up to its horrific past.

Most of the 197 countries with a recognised ‘national day’ on Wikipedia¹ celebrate one of the following categories:

  • 143 – Independence from a foreign oppressor or colonial power
  • 22 – Drastic change of governance (e.g. a revolution, becoming a communist nation, or a republic), usually towards its current form
  • 13 – Royalty (e.g. Queen’s birthday, Coronation day)
  • 9 – Unification from previously separate nations, or a separation from a previous group
  • 4 – a religious occasion

Four countries chose a different cause for celebration:

  • Portugal commemorates the death of a famous poet, Luís de Camões (best national day ever!)
  • Spain remembers having colonised an entire continent
  • New Zealand celebrates the Treaty of Waitangi, between the British Crown and Māori chiefs; and
  • 1 country celebrates the day on which a foreign colonial power invaded its land, and started a devastation which led to the death of an estimated 90% of its native population.

Australia – the only country in the world which celebrates having been invaded/ colonised – the day in which another nation’s flag was raised on its soil, (the British Flag in Sydney Cove).

Many momentous occasions have taken place since Australia gained independence in 1901². The combination of these has led to what many of us enjoy today.

Choosing the perfect day will no doubt be a difficult decision. But avoiding one of the worst should be a no-brainer.

Celebrating the beginning of a massacre, dispossession, and centuries of legislated racial discrimination which almost destroyed the ‘oldest living cultural history in the world’³ shows an absolute lack of empathy for humanity, and seems entirely at odds with what one might expect are commonly held beliefs of “modern Australians”.

The devastation of Australia’s first peoples was so severe that over six times more Indigenous people died by Australian Federation than all Australian war casualties in all wars, ever (4).

The Indigenous population is only now reaching pre-colonisation numbers, over two centuries on (5).

Recognising that colonialists were not the national heroes we once painted them to be is not a novel idea. Countries across the American continent (6) have long been moving away from celebrating Columbus Day, which marked Spanish colonisation. Instead focusing on the impact colonisation had on indigenous peoples across the continent, and the work needed to mend interactions.

The 26th January is not a day for BBQs, beers, and country-wide sing-alongs to the year’s best music.

It’s a day of mourning.

Perhaps a day to acknowledge how far we’ve come, and reflect on how far we’ve got to go.

 

 

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[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Day

[2] http://www.australia.gov.au/about-government/how-government-works/federation

[3] http://www.australia.gov.au/about-australia/australian-story/austn-indigenous-cultural-heritage

[4] https://www.awm.gov.au/encyclopedia/war_casualties/ – All war casualties =  102,815. Indigenous casualties is estimated by the loss of 90% of commonly agreed estimate of 750,000 people pre-invasion

[5] http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3238.0.55.001 compared to pre-colonisation estimates

[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbus_Day

Australians flying off-the-charts

Australians flying off-the-charts

by | 9 Jan, 2016 | Australia, climate change, consumption, travel

In this age of Cognitive Behavioural Therapy, it seems Australians have coordinated a national group exposure therapy for one of the most common fears… aviophobia.

In 2014, 52 million people boarded domestic flights in Australia¹. That’s 2.2 flights per capita (or 1 return trip per person). Much like the growth seen in International flights, domestic flights have been increasing at almost exponential rates since 1945.

Domestic Passengers per capita

Domestic flights have become such commonplace that the Sydney to Melbourne route (and back) ranks in the top 5 busiest routes in the world²³!

Perhaps even more surprising is that the Melbourne – Launceston route (Australia’s 17th most popular in 2014) was busier than every route in England. In fact, there were only 6 European countries in 2014 (France, Spain, Norway, Germany, Italy and Sweden) with a busier domestic route than Melbourne to Launceston4.

Overall, there are twice as many plane passengers in Australia per capita than the OECD average, when comparing all fights (domestic and international).

Flights by country 2

When it comes to environmental impact, flights ain’t flights. The routes included in BITRE “Top routes” list range from 236km (Sydney to Canberra) to 3,615km (Brisbane to Perth). Since 1945, the average distance travelled per passenger per trip has increased steadily to 1,200km (roughly Sydney to Adelaide, or Perth to Karratha). So, not only are Australians travelling more, but they are also travelling further.

Flight Distance 3

* Weighted average, by number of passengers.

This means the overall impact is starting to sound like a Daft Punk song…

Longer, faster, more often…

Or in CO2 terms… more, more, more.

CO2 emmissions per capita

In 2015 Australians will emit more CO2 in domestic flights alone, than the people from the bottom 42 countries emit in total, (roughly 500kg).5

I suppose this is the price of aviophobia  therapy.

_____________________________________________

p.s.: For those wondering, the sharp dip in 1989 is due to the Pilot’s strike:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Australian_pilots%27_dispute

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[1] Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/domestic_airline_activity-annual_publications.aspx

[2] http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/05/daily-chart-8

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World%27s_busiest_passenger_air_routes

[4] Not including Russia, as their figures were not found.

[5] http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC

The roads know no date

The roads know no date

by | 27 Dec, 2015 | Australia, mortality, road safety

By the time the Christmas Holiday Road Toll counter begins, the worst is all but over. For many, unfortunately, the reminders of the roads’ dangers come too late.

Every year the Australian media and Police and Roads Departments produce an hour by hour, day by day counter of the road fatalities occurring during the festive season. News bulletins focus on yet another untimely death, and end of year best wishes are accompanied by a “stay safe on the roads” message.

It has almost become a new Hallmark theme, alongside “It’s a boy”, “Get Well soon”, and “I might not want to personally join such an outdated and discriminative institution, but I respect your right to do so, even if many aren’t yet afforded that right”¹.

Whilst road fatalities are a serious issue deserving of media attention, the Christmas period is not news worthy. In fact, the focus might incorrectly imply that the rest of the year is less dangerous, and therefore less deserving of our vigilance.

Road Toll Graph

Based on figures from 1989-2014 from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics’ (BITRE), the Xmas Toll period (which this year runs from the 23rd December to the 3rd January) has a lower road fatality average than the rest of the year².

The graph above compares each day in December through to mid-January to the average death rate for the entire year. These figures are based on data in the 1989-2014 period, for which the average is 4.7 road fatalities per day.  The red areas denote a day where there are more deaths on the road than average, and grey areas denote smaller number of casualties.

Other than a small spike on Boxing and New Year’s Day, the rest of the Xmas Road Toll Period is remarkably below average.

Unlike the Festive period, the weeks just prior to it do seem more dangerous than average. On average, 110 people will die on the roads in the first 3 weeks of December every year. This is more than in any other 3 week continuous period during the year.

Newspapers are not entirely unaware of the numbers. In fact they usually publish an article or two every year showing how misleading these tolls are (example ³). Yet they continue to misguide the community and create panic by perpetuating the myth.

The question is how we focus our educational and advertising campaigns to have the greatest impact.  I doubt Christmas is the answer. It rarely is.

__________________________

[1] This comment is source-less, and potentially misleading.
[2] http://bitre.gov.au/statistics/safety/fatal_road_crash_database.aspx

[3] http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorians-need-to-stop-talking-about-the-road-toll-tac-chief-says-20151223-glu3c8.html

 

Re-calibrating medical sex

Re-calibrating medical sex

by | 22 Dec, 2015 | Australia, health, occupation

Thirty years ago TVs were filled with MacGyver, dancefloors swayed to Cindy Lauper, the US threw its weight all over Latin America, and 8 out of 9 visits to Australian Doctors were seen by guys.

Australians made 68.1 million visits to General Practitioners in 1984-85, and 60.6 million of those services were provided by male doctors[1].

Since then the GP sexual landscape has been changing at a steady pace.

University data show increasing number of women graduating, doing so in larger number than men since about 1987[2], and these graduates have had a visible impact on the professional make-up.

Whilst we haven’t scaled the heights of Cindy nor MacGyver, and the US is still largely using its army to secure market-share around the globe, our medical gender balance has drastically improved.

By 2013-14 women provided 33% of all GP services. That’s triple the 11% provided in 1984-85.

Like many other professions, women work part-time at higher rates than men. Women GP work the equivalent of half a full-time role on average, while male doctors work two-thirds of a full-time role. This means that even though only 33% of GP services are provided by women, they make up 43% of all working GPs. This is almost double the 22 % they made up in 1984-85.

Count of GPs by Sex

This means that of the 15,742 more GPs Australia has now in comparison to the mid-80s, 10,228 of them (or 65%) are women!

Unfortunately the Health Department figures are not provided by gender and age. However, based on the rapid change in gender balance, the increasing rates of female graduates, and the growing number of doctors nearing retirement age, I suspect the overall balance will continue to calibrate in the coming decade.

Is this enough? Hells no. But it might provide more role-models, and perhaps even help the gender pay-gap which has stubbornly continued despite improvements across various socio-economic areas.

_______________________________________________[1] http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/content/general+practice+statistics-1

[2] http://docs.education.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/time_series_data_1949_-_2000.pdf

Paging Doogie Howser, stat!

Paging Doogie Howser, stat!

by | 17 Dec, 2015 | Australia, health, occupation

Australia’s population is slowly ageing, not only individually, but as a group.  However, some groups are ageing faster than others, and our GPs (Medical practitioners) appear to be on a downhill race to retirement.

Back in the mid to late 80s, 2 out of every 3 GPs in Australia were under 45 years of age (64%).  In 2014, the same age group contributed just over 1 out of every 3 GPs (or 37%).

Meanwhile, those over 65, for whom retirement bells toll loudly, now account for 13.4% of all GPs. This is almost double the 6.9% they made up thirty years ago.

After 30 years in decline however, it seems GPs have solved the ageing dilemma.  Since around 2010 there are signs that the younger cohort is increasing faster than those who’ve come before.

Let’s hope these same GPs can solve all our ageing issues, because this getting older business is not for me.

______________________

Source: http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/content/general+practice+statistics-1

From KFC to GFC

From KFC to GFC

by | 6 Dec, 2015 | consumption, demography, food

It seems you can’t turn your head these days without having an eye poked out by a fried chicken wing.

In the land of foodie-fashion, Melbourne (Australia), fried chicken is running amok. From the eastern KFC variety (Korean Fried Chicken), to American ‘Southern-style’, our feathered friends seem to be cornering the market. And these are only the latest additions to our growing consumption previously satiated by parmas and charcoal chicken.

However, it seems the chicken proliferation is not a new phenomenon, nor is it limited to Melbourne.

Chickens have long been the most populous farmed animal, and their growth in the 20th century has put them in a league of their own. Over the past 50 years the world chicken population has increased 5-fold. It is currently estimated at 21 billion.

Not all chicken farms are growing equally.
Whilst the United States once dominated chicken production, accounting for as many as 1 in 3 chickens killed in the early 1960s, China and Brazil have quickly caught up. China has in fact overtaken the US since 2012, with over 9 billion chickens roaming at any one time.

Whilst these three countries account for around 40% of all chicken production, many other countries continue to increase their production.

That’s a heck of a lot of KFC, chicken biryani, chicken schnitzels, and chicken suffering.

 

Sources

Food And Agriculture Organization Of The United Nations Statistics Division
World population history

Burning up the runway

Burning up the runway

by | 3 Dec, 2015 | climate change, consumption, data, facebook, travel

I often think Facebook is paid by tourism companies to mock my office existence and exaggerate how often my “friends” are on overseas holidays.  But ABS figures[1]suggest Australians really are crossing customs at climate changing rates.

Australians flew overseas 9.3 million times in the 12 months to September 2015. That’s almost 800,000 departures per month. Or in Facebook terms, you can expect more than 3 out of every 100 Aussie friends to travel overseas this month: that’s a myriad mates munching at the Marrakesh markets; a bunch of selfies from Boracay’s beautiful beaches; and the occasional insightfully witticism of the commercialist culture capturing Kolkata.

Australians have long been early adopters of international flights. The first England to Australia flight took place almost a century ago, in 1919 (taking 28 days). Overseas flights, however, have really taken off in the last decades. The number of Australians flying overseas has doubled since 2006, and increased ten-fold since 1977.  Accounting for the population grow, trips per capita have doubled since 2004, and grown six-fold since 1977.

There are many ways of interpreting these figures, depending on what angle / lens / issue you care to focus on.

We could suggest that whilst Australians (according to pop media) are deeply concerned about economic instability and slowing wage rises, they have nonetheless increased their international holidays by 50% per capita since the Global Financial Crisis.

We could similarly insinuate that whilst Australians’ concern for climate change leads them to implement strategies focusing on everyday impacts, they may be undoing all their efforts by ignoring the growth of big ticket items. (The CO2 emissions from a Melbourne to London[2] return flight equate to the yearly emissions per capita for the UK[3].)

Or we could just say “look mum, I’m holding up the Tower of Pisa!” (AGAIN!)

You son of a migrant!

You son of a migrant!

by | 9 Oct, 2012 | demography, education, immigration

Over the course of the 20th century Australia experienced a remarkable increase in high school graduation rates.  This has been relatively stable for almost two decades at 74%, but is it evenly spread across the community?

 

One interesting variable impacting education attainment is immigration status.  It is not surprising that when designing an obstacle course for foreigners to jump through in order to be granted visas, the immigration department would include an education hoop.  As such, the fact that migrants have higher rates of high-school completion than the local variety is to be expected.
The extent of this effect is somewhat dependant on which corner of the globe the migrants arrive from, but all regions result in higher rates than those born in Australia*.
  
The data herein refers to people aged 20 to 29, to focus on the more current situation, while also reducing the impact of the change over time while also being mindful the rates have been stable since the mid 1990s.
* Regions grouped by the Standard Australian Classification of Countries( SACC)2011: http://abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/1269.0
Interestingly, however, this effect endures beyond the first generation.  According to Census 2011 data, people born in Australia to two migrant parents are 18% more likely to complete high school than Australians with non-migrant parents.  Those with one migrant parent are 8% more likely (this appears to be the case regardless of whether the migrant is the mother or father).
Unfortunately the Census does not provide information beyond the previous generation, so we can’t (from this source) examine how long the migrancy influence is felt for.  
 
Come November, data on tertiary education will become available, allowing for much greater analysis of such topics. More to come.
 ___________
All data presented in this post was sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ 2011 Census: http://abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/Census?opendocument#from-banner=GT
 
 
 

Sex education

Sex education

by | 4 Oct, 2012 | education, gender

Gender inequality, with regards to high school graduation rates, has not been this pronounced since pre WWII days.
 
According to Census 2011 data, boys born prior to 1959 were more likely to finish high school than girls, but the reverse has been the case from that year onwards.  The gap continued to increase for 20 years before steadying.  However, after a small bump in recent years the gap between the graduation rates mirrors the levels seen in the mid 1930s, with girls out-graduating boys by 10 percentage points*.
 
But let’s not get caught in the detail. The greater story is the educational revolution which has occurred over the past 80 years, in Australia and around the world.  While less than 20% of the community finished high school a mere 2 or 3 generations ago (less than 1 in 7 for girls), around 75% of today’s kids do so.   
Graph stops in 1992 as those born since have not had an equal opportunity to graduate yet.
 
Unfortunately, we seem to have plateaued. The fast growth in graduation experienced between those born in 1915 to those born in 1975 has come to a complete halt. The last 17 years have shown no significant movement, with those born in 1975 being just as likely to graduate as those born in the 90s.  Have we peaked? Or is this purely a revolutionary intermission?
 
And is 75% enough?
 
A similar halt to action occurred for boys born between 1955 and 1966, where for a period of over 10 years the rates of graduation did not improve.  That time, however, the effect was only felt by boys, while in the same period girls improved by 12 percentage points.  What was it about the 1970s that didn’t encourage boys to improve their likelihood to graduate from school?  I have no idea, if anyone does, please let me know!
 
This story is not meant to suggest boys are hard done by, but rather to promote the overall improvements in access to education, in particular with regards to gender equality. To highlight one of the many improvements achieved in an impressive time frame  As well as to highlight that it was not so long ago that many of the things many take for granted nowadays were only afforded to a very privileged few.
 
 
* While girls’ graduation rates are currently 10% points higher than boys’, the same 10 points back in the 1930s (because of the small overall graduation rates) meant  boys were almost twice as likely to graduate as girls… oils ain’t oils.

All data presented in this post was sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ 2011 Census: http://abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/Census?opendocument#from-banner=GT

Faceboomers

Faceboomers

by | 8 Sep, 2012 | demography, facebook

After a recent spate of births and pregnancy announcements on my facebook feed, it seemed Australians were finally heeding the words “one for mum, one for dad, and one for the country” (Costello dixit).
This should not surprise me as the majority of my friends are in their birth-giving prime (perhaps not biologically, but at least numerically). In fact, their age distribution closely mirrors Australia’s fertility rate curve1.

What is surprising is how far behind the national average my friends are. Only 29% of my female friends aged 30-342 have reproduced. This is less than half the national average for the same cohort (62%)3 . By my age, 47% of Australian women have had at least 2 kids! Whilst my facebook friends in their late 30s (35-39) do some catching up, they still fall way behind their national quota (63% vs. 79%). If I thought my world was being overran by babies, I can’t imagine what the average early-30s-Australian’s Facebook page looks like!

I always thought my friends were special, and at least on this topic it seems to be the case, but I suspect the effect is mostly one of delayed production, rather than a total boycott. This will probably be exacerbated by the rapid growth in the fertility of over 35s.

While the rate falls away after 40, with less than 1% of women in Australia giving birth past 42 in 2010, the fertility rate of 35 year olds has doubled since 1989. Moreover, the rate for 40-year-olds has more than tripled in the same period.

I probably shouldn’t be surprised when infants completely take over my feed in the coming years.

______________________________
1: Births, Australia, 2010 – http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3301.0
2: Friends grouped in 5-year brackets (mostly for confidentiality reasons… and lack of exact age information)
3: Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011. 

Time for a road trip!

Time for a road trip!

by | 27 Dec, 2011 | data, mortality, road safety

Today is the fifth day of the 2011-12 Christmas holiday road toll period¹ and it is hard to open a newspaper or news website without being informed that so far 18 people have lost their lives on Australian roads since last Friday. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), road traffic accidents amount to over 1.3 million deaths per year, and injure in excess of 50 million people. They are the biggest killer of people aged 15 to 39 worldwide, and ranked around 9th overall². Worst of all, these figures are expected to increase over the coming years, mostly due to the growing access to vehicles in the developing world*. These facts make road safety a worthwhile focus of media attention. What makes less sense is the misleading obsession which the media has on the holiday periods.

By focusing so overtly on the Easter³ and Christmas periods, it is assumed by the public that they claim more lives than other times. Headlines speak of the climbing toll, morbidly focusing on every death recorded during the period. They even include a state by (vs.) state tally, and each police jurisdiction either congratulates their constituents, or shows their disappointment, depending on how their stats is faring. What they rarely report, however, is that the holiday periods are nothing special. If anything, the Easter and Christmas periods claim less lives than similar periods throughout the year.

Based on data published by the Department of Infrastructure and Transport 4 (Commonwealth level), the Christmas/New Year holiday period claims an average of 67 lives per year (since 1989, which is the earliest freely available data). The average for a similar period throughout the year is 70. Similarly, the Easter period claims an average of 22 lives per year, while 24 die on similarly lengthed periods the rest of the year. Christmas day itself falls in the lowest 5% of days in terms of deaths, in the period 1989-2010.

The month of December does appear to be slightly more deadly than the rest of the year, but surprisingly it is the period before Christmas which makes it so. By the time we first hear about the Christmas road toll, the worst has passed. Similarly, March is worse than April, meaning the Easter reminder comes too late.

The calendar below shows the average number of road fatalities for each day of the year, for the period 1989-2010. The cells are colour coded, with green having the smallest number of deaths and red being the deadliest.

Unfortunately, the road toll is devastating every week, not just when the media decides to focus on it. During the last two decades, an average of 34 people died on Australian roads every week. Most of the accidents which claimed lives occurred during the weekends. Saturdays claim 63% more lives than Mondays and Tuesdays. Fridays and Sundays aren’t far behind. If the media (and law enforcement agencies) want to focus their attention on a particular period (double demerit points, increased breathalysers, etc. etc.) then perhaps every weekend is as good as the others. This would send the message that the roads are dangerous throughout the year, not just on holidays.
___________________________________________

NB: As the numbers represent the average from 1989 to 2010, the day of the week they land on changes from year to year. For presentation purposes, this calendar is based on the 2010 layout, with the 29th February added for completeness.

Dataset available upon request.


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* Conversely, one could argue that since the trend is due to expanding access to motorised vehicles, a growing road tally in the developing world is a horrible side effect of great progress, bringing with it increased freedom of movement, greater access to trading routes, and generally higher quality of life.

 
 _______________________________
1. Christmas/New Year holiday period begins at 00:01 on the last Friday before December 25, and ends at 23:59 on the first Friday after December 31.
2. http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2009/9789241563840_eng.pdf
3. Easter holiday period begins at 00:01 on Easter Thursday and ends at 23:59 on Easter Monday. 
4. http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/roads/safety/road_fatality_statistics/index.aspx